War Fatigue Sets In, As Western Economies Plunge into Chaos
A potential shift in the strategic situation could be developing, centered on developments around the war in Ukraine and the U.S.-Russia relationship. The escalation from the Russian side, in targeting energy infrastructure, has reduced the capacities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while at the same time, the Russian tactical withdrawal from Kherson opens up a chance for talks, in which all parties could save face. The precondition for this, however, is that President Zelensky agree to talk and accept some concessions.
It was evidently to sabotage any such opening that a blatant provocation was staged on Nov. 15 involving the strike of a “Russian-made” missile on the territory of NATO member Poland, just as the G20 was meeting in Bali. The incident turned out to be “fake news”, but not before Zelensky had called on NATO to act.
On the other hand, there is an awareness of the need to avoid a devastating defeat for Ukraine and NATO, which is reflected in statements by the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley. He told The Economic Club of New York on Nov. 9 that there is “a window of opportunity for negotiation”, but both Russia and Ukraine would have to reach a “mutual recognition” that a victory “is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means”. Milley reiterated his statements in subsequent speeches and interviews, reflecting the consensus among military layers, including in Europe.
In social and economic terms as well, the price of waging war on Russia has become unacceptably high. Thus, Washington has come under increasing pressure from European allies, beginning with France and Germany. As the U.S. edition of Politico reported “American officials based in Europe are issuing internal warnings to Washington colleagues that some countries with populations that support Russia are growing angry over sanctions and blaming the U.S. for rising costs. That sentiment could put pressure on European leaders to pull back support for the sanctions, officials said in internal reports circulated throughout the [Biden] administration in recent days.”
That said, Volodymyr Zelensky remains a captive of the hard-line, neonazi faction and of the international forces which control them, led by agencies of the British government. It is to be expected that British forces, who have orchestrated the provocations against Russia so far, from the bombing of the Crimea bridge to the attack against the Russian fleet in Sevastopol, to missile attacks on Russian territory, will attempt to sabotage peace efforts with some atrocity or further provocation.
However, even if efforts to bring about peace negotiations are successful, the West will still face another sort of Armageddon: the financial tsunami which is looming as a result of the irreversible economic bankrupcy, including intolerable inflation rates and contraction of the real economy. Popular resistance is breaking out in a dozen countries in Europe, while the effects on the developing sector have been most dramatic, threatening all with ungovernability. All this underscores the need for a new economic architecture, coupled with large-scale infrastructure projects. At the meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi in Indonesia one day before the G20 summit, the Chinese leader called for cooperation between the two countries to solve such global security and economic problems.