Energy: The Main Threat To Europe Is the EU
European Union policy towards Russia energy supplies is a combination of the foolish behavour exposed by Aesop and Phaedrus. On the one side, they steal Russia’s foreign reserves and accuse Moscow of not wanting to pay in euros (The wolf to the lamb: “How dare you trouble all the flood?”); on the other side, they keep repeating that Moscow is about to impose an embargo on gas deliveries (The Boy Who Cried Wolf), although Russian gas flows to Europe have never stopped.
Both forms of behavior serve one ugly purpose: prepare and convince the population to accept deadly energy rationing as part of the usurers’ plot known as the “Green transition”. If media leaks are confirmed, the “REPowerEU” paper announced for May 18 by EU Commission Vice President Timmermans contains a set of measures which are unfeasible — except for one: energy rationing.
Indeed, target Nr. 1, reducing dependence on Russian gas by two thirds, while simultaneously filling strategic reserves, is not possible without rationing, as a German study recently demonstrated (cf. AS 19/22); Target Nr. 2, replacing pipeline gas with LNG is a long term endeavour; and increasing so-called “renewables” means greater dependence on fossile fuels as a standby capacity. As a matter of fact, energy rationing is explicitly recommended by the Commission paper.
The only threat to European stability is coming from the Commission itself. The EU is following the script laid out in the 2019 Rand Corporation report. The Rand Corporation, which has a long list of EU institutions among its clients, suggests a set of measures to hit Russia with sanctions, including replacing Russian oil and gas with other sources, including from the U.S., and “sending lethal weapons to Ukraine” at the top of the political-military measures.
As to the danger that Russia will cut energy supplies to Europe, it has never been real. In respect to the gas flowing through Ukraine, neither Moscow nor Kiev are interested in losing revenue from that trade – and indeed, even after the Ukrainian operator closed the pumping station at Sokhranovka, the gas has been flowing through the Sudhza station more to the north, at slightly reduced levels due to milder temperatures in Europe.
However, the EU’s tactic of crying wolf has succeeded in scaring oil importers, who have basically imposed sanctions on themselves. Thus, about half of the direct Russian oil exports to Europe have been cut off, or 1.5 million out of 3 million barrels per day. But the rest is being provided by Greek tankers, which have replaced the Russian ships hit by the EU sanctions, as Le Figaro reported on May 17.