Will Germany’s Next Government Be With or Without the Greens?

Despite a massive amount of positive coverage in media and international think-tanks, the chancellor candidate of the Green Party, Annalena Baerbock, is still not all that popular, with just a few weeks left until the Sept. 26 election. As a result, a media mobilization is on to prevent the option of a coalition government without the Greens –formed by the CDU, SPD and FDP.

CDU candidate Armin Laschet is being blamed for the recent flash flood catastrophe and the bureaucratic delay of relief measures in North Rhine Westphalia, of which he is now governor. In addition, increasing coverage is given to those Christian Democrats who would rather have the leader of the Bavarian CSU Markus Söder become chancellor, even though he lost the nomination earlier this year. Under German election law, the chancellor is not elected by direct vote of the citizens, but by the newly-elected Bundestag. Therefore, according to one scenario, Laschet would remain the lead candidate until election day but then be replaced by Söder. Unlike Laschet, the Bavarian leader has come out repeatedly in favor of a coalition with the Greens, and might be able to rely on their votes in the Bundestag to clinch the chancellorship.

Current opinion polls give Laschet a popularity rating of only 12% as chancellor, behind Annalena Baerbock at 15%, and SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz who has risen to nearly 30% following a recent spout of positive coverage in the mainstream media. A side effect of that is that the SPD list generally is nearly equal to the CDU in the most recent polls, and ahead of the Greens. Thus, Scholz might hope to get the chancellorship with the support of the Greens, and then form a coalition with them and the FDP, against the CDU/CSU. The Greens would be a strong partner in such a government, ensuring that the Green Deal and Great Reset become the main governmental agenda.

In fact, the Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo) is the only political force in Germany resolutely opposed, on a principled basis, to the green agenda.